June is one of the busiest months on the PGA Tour. The best golfers in the world are about to head to Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial — known fondly as Jack’s tournament — right before the U.S. Open and another signature event, the Travelers Championship.
Let’s get a disclaimer out of the way up front.
You didn’t click on a PGA Tour betting story to be told that Scottie Scheffler is good. All articles like this ought to come with a reminder that, unless another police officer sees his car and gets any bright ideas, the World No. 1 is a threat to win any week of the year. Scheffler’s latest feat was to open the Charles Schwab Challenge with a 2-over 72, nearly miss the cut, then rally all the way to a tie for second place.
Here are several non-Scottie players to consider and our pick to beat all picks at the Memorial.
The recent champs: Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland
Before last year’s Memorial, Hovland had a reputation for winning only tropical tournaments with weaker fields — think Puerto Rico and Mayakoba. His playoff victory at the 2023 Memorial was a springboard for the best summer of his career, as he went on to capture the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship before playing on Europe’s winning Ryder Cup team.
The thing to remember about Hovland is that he’s been fighting swing thoughts all year. This problem may be behind him now that he’s gotten back together with his old swing coach and promptly finished third at the PGA Championship. Before that, the results were bad and the vibes were worse.
Then there’s Cantlay, who isn’t having a tremendous season in his own right but did win at Muirfield Village in 2021 and 2019. It’s funny to think about how some destinies might have turned out different if Jon Rahm hadn’t tested positive for COVID-19 after building a six-shot lead at the 2021 Memorial, forcing him to withdraw and opening the door for Cantlay. It was a weird time. Nevertheless, you can’t count Cantlay out at a place like this because of his putting, which we’ll get to in a moment.
Man of the hour: Xander Schauffele
The Memorial will mark Schauffele’s first start since winning the PGA Championship and beating the narrative that had formed that he could not finish in the biggest moments. Statistically, he’s the second-best player on tour right now, and he’ll carry nothing but momentum to Ohio.
Look at last year’s winner: Hovland ranked eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and third in SG: Putting. Billy Horschel was seventh and 13th, respectively, when he won in 2022. The tournament tests multiple skills. It’s hard to predict putting, but Schauffele ranked second at the RBC Heritage, 25th at the Wells Fargo and 12th at the PGA. And he’s become one of the best drivers on tour, to boot.
Horses for courses: Denny McCarthy and Adam Scott
Hovland had to defeat McCarthy in a playoff last year, denying the up-and-comer known for his tremendous putting. McCarthy also tied for fifth the year before, so you know he likes this course. He might be the best player on tour without a win, and his putting can help him stand out on a bunched leaderboard at a signature event like this. If you see a good number for McCarthy to finish top-10 or top-five, run, don’t walk.
We also like Scott, who’s having a respectable year for an old man. (Yeah, 43 is old in sports years and you know it.) Might he break through at Muirfield Village? He’s made 14 of 15 cuts here lifetime and earned five top-10s, including a T9 last year and second place as recently as 2019.
The pick: Collin Morikawa
Between his recent form and statistical profile for this course, Morikawa is your man this week. Morikawa, who lost to Cantlay in a playoff at the 2021 Memorial, followed his T4 at the PGA with a fourth-place finish at the Charles Schwab.Â
Muirfield Village has some of the most penalizing rough on tour; Morikawa ranks second this year in driving accuracy. He isn’t the longest driver, but he makes up for that with his irons — ranking top-10 in approaches from 175-200 yards, which he’ll hit a bunch of at this course. Morikawa’s putting can hold him back, but he’s shown improvement in that area this year, including some of the best numbers on tour in putts per round and birdie-or-better conversion.
Because this signature event will be packed with top-20 players, you’re going to find a major-caliber player like Morikawa with enticing odds to win. There hasn’t been a better time all year to place that bet.
